62% Fibonacci Resistance Coming Up For The EUR/USD

Posted Friday, March 27, 2020 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The action on the forex has been heavy today, with the Greenback losing market share vs the majors. Among the leading movers has been the EUR/USD, rallying 65+ pips after a rejection of daily support. At this point, it appears that currency traders are limiting exposure to the USD going into the weekend.

On the economic data front, this morning brought a collection of U.S. metrics. Here is a quick look at the numbers:

Event                                                                          Actual      Projected     Previous

Core Personal Consumption (MoM, Feb.)                 0.2%              0.2%               0.2%

Core Personal Consumption (YoY, Feb.)                    1.8%               1.7%                1.7%

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (March)         89.1                90.0                95.9

The headliner of this group is the decline in the UM Sentiment Index. The figure represents the degradation of sentiment attributable to the COVID-19 outbreak. The figure came in at its lowest level in three years. While this collection of numbers isn’t all that great, their next installment will surely be worse.

Passage of the U.S. stimulus bill has boosted the markets and put pressure on the Greenback. With a bit of luck, a shorting opportunity will set up in the EUR/USD. 

EUR/USD Rallies On House Stimulus Vote

The past several weeks have featured epic forex action. Today’s bullish break by the EUR/USD may bring a key Fibonacci resistance level into play.

EUR/USD, Daily Chart
EUR/USD, Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch going into the final hours of the trading week:

  • Resistance(1): 62% Macro Wave Retracement, 1.1163
  • Support(1): Bollinger MP, 1.1043

Bottom Line: If the bull run continues in the EUR/USD, a shorting opportunity may set up very soon. Until elected, I will have sell orders in the queue from 1.1149. With an initial stop loss at 1.1204, this trade produces 50 pips on a sub-1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

Breaking News: The House of Representatives has squelched a motion by Kentucky Congressman Massie and approved the COVID-19 stimulus bill. It is expected to be signed by President Trump later today.

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