A recent Reuters poll indicates that economic activity in China has started picking up after the extended lockdowns over the coronavirus outbreak, however, the risk of recession still remains due to external conditions. In case the global economy takes longer to recover in the aftermath of the pandemic, China’s trade-reliant economy could very well see a contraction past Q1 2020.

Economists surveyed by Reuters forecast that China’s economy could grow at around 1.3% YoY in Q2 this year, after contracting by 6.8% in the previous quarter. For the entire year, China’s GDP is expected to come in at a mere 1.8%, the weakest rate of economic growth seen since 1976.

In the last edition of the poll, economists had forecast 2020 GDP at 2.5%, but have since trimmed it lower on account of heightened uncertainty about consumption picking up after the pandemic. The worst case scenario pegs economic growth at just 0.8%, but on a positive note, 2021 could see growth rebound as high as 15.8%.

Economists have highlighted the risks of a possible second wave of infections across China as the economy slowly starts to reopen. In addition, despite social distancing measures still in place, economic recovery to pre-pandemic levels will take a lot longer than previously anticipated.