U.S. Stocks Open Weekly Trade On The Bull

Posted Monday, April 27, 2020 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

U.S. stocks have opened the week in the green despite a 25% plunge in June WTI crude oil. At the midway point of the session, the DJIA DOW (+270), S&P 500 SPX (+35), and NASDAQ (+98) are driving toward new monthly highs. Widespread optimism over a relaunch of the U.S. economy is being given credit for the rally.

This morning’s U.S. Treasuries auction has come and gone. Demand for 3 and 6-Month T-Bills was all over the board, with yields holding relatively firm. In addition, the Dallas FED Manufacturing Business Index (April) came in at -73.7, below the previous figure of -70.0. This is an all-time low from the Dallas FED and suggests that COVID-19 economic fallout has hit manufacturing particularly hard.

As we move into the post-COVID-19 era, one has to question the validity of figures like the Dallas FED Manufacturing Index. Lockdowns and quarantines have crippled economic output and the markets have already priced the fallout. If stocks are showing strength when all metrics point to despair, how high will they go when the figures turn positive? Likely much, much higher.

U.S. Stocks On The Bull To Open The Trading Week

June E-mini S&P 500 futures are in the green, with values breaking above Friday’s highs. Sentiment is largely positive toward U.S. large-cap stocks as a big week of earnings reports is underway. 

June E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES), Daily Chart

Here are two levels to watch this week for the June E-mini S&Ps:

  • Resistance(1): 62% Retracement of COVID-19 Sell-Off, 2930.00
  • Support(1): 50% Retracement of COVID-19 Sell-Off, 2786.00

Bottom Line: If U.S. stocks continue their upward trajectory, a selling opportunity may come into play. Until elected, I will have sell orders queued up in the June E-mini S&Ps from 2924.75. With an initial stop-loss at 2952.75, this trade produces 100 ticks on a slightly sub-1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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