US GDP Contracts by 4.8% in Q1

Posted Wednesday, April 29, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

The US economy went through a soft period during last year, as the global economy weakened due to the trade war between US and China. But, that was nothing compared to what was expected for this year, because of the economic shut-down. The US economy was expected to contract by 4%, but it has contracted further by 4.8%. Below is the report with all the components:

US Advanced GDP Report for 1Q 2020

  • Advanced GDP Q1 -4.8% versus -4.0% estimate
  • Personal consumption fell -7.6% vs -3.6% estimate
  • Core PCE rose 1.8% vs 1.7% estimate
  • GDP price index rose 1.3% vs 1.0% estimate
  • Exports -8.7%. Imports -15.3%
  • Business investment -8.6% versus -2.4%
  • Equipment -15.2% versus -4.3% 4th quarter
  • Business inventories cuts 0.53% from GDP
  • X motor vehicles -4.4% versus +3.1% last quarter
  • Durable goods -16.1% versus +2.8% last quarter

The data signals the start of the recession.  The worst is yet to come as GDP is expected to plunge in the 2Q by 20% to -30%. We have never seen such a recession before, probably since the great depression or WW2.  Although, core PCE rose to 1.8% YoY, against 1.7% estimated so, at least inflation is holding up well.

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