CB Consumer Confidence Weakens Further, But Home Sales Don’t Mind the LockDown

Posted Wednesday, May 27, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

The US CB consumer confidence report for May was released a while ago, as well as the new home sales report for April. The consumer confidence turned quite weak in March and even more so in April. But it was expected to improve a little this month, which didn’t happen. Although, despite the decline in the confidence, new home sales remain unfazed from the lockdown. Home is all there is left for now, so I suppose people people are diverting their cash from consumption to property, those who have cash.

US CB Consumer Confidence Report

  • US CB consumer confidence at 86.6 points against 87.1 points expected
  • April CB consumer confidence at 86.96 points

US New Home Sales Report

  • New home sales month-to-month 0.6% vs. -23.4% estimate. The prior month was revised to -13.7% from -15.4%
  • Month supply 6.3 months vs. 6.4 months last month. The low in 2020 reached 5.0 month. Although higher it is still not in crisis area.
  • Homes for sale total 325,000 down from 331,000 last month. The level equals the January level
  • Northeast, +8.7%
  • Midwest, +2.4%
  • South, +2.4%
  • West -6.3%
  • Median price $309,900, -8.6% from April’s $339,000. So, builders may have discounted inventory in the uncertain times.
  • the mean price also fell to $364,500 from $377,400. That is a -5.4% decline year on year. The month-to-month change is -3.4%.
  • The annualized sales pace is also down sharply over the prior 2 months from a high of 777K but still is at a relatively high level historically.

In a surprise, the new home sales for April comes in at 623K vs 480K estimate. That is a gain for the month. The prior month was revised slightly lower to 619K from 627K last month. Needless to say, the number is a big surprise given expectations. However it did not come without big discounts from the builders to attract the buyers. If the economy is to rebound, we should see a run back higher in prices next month.

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