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AUD and NZD Soften on Big Dive in Retail Sales

Yesterday, the AUD and NZD continued the bullish run, but it was the latter that finally made up some ground.

For the most part, the AUD/USD, has been incredibly strong as the risk-on trade just gets stronger by the day.

This morning we saw a big data dump and we should note that retail sales did come in better than expected. Mind you the April figures showed a massive -17.7% fall, so that is a worry.

But as social distancing measures ease, we should be turning the corner economically. The Australian Government just announced another massive stimulus program overnight which will see a huge boost to the construction sector in the next few months.

That said, looking at the charts, has the positive mood been priced in? There was certainly some FOMO in the big run in the AUD/USD but now it appears price has slowed down. We could even make the argument that there has been a double top under 0.6900 which is bearish.

So if price was to drop back I wouldn’t be at all surprised.

AUD/USD – 240min.


Last night the NZD/USD actually took over the reins and was the leader but it has been lagging to date in comparison.

For the Kiwi, we can see that price is now at that 0.6380-6400 region which has been important. While the AUD/USD is back at near-2020 highs, for the Kiwi that level would be the 0.6750.

For whatever reason, there is still some work to be done, but just at this moment in time, I am a little more bullish on the Kiwi. Like I said I think we could see a correction in the AUD/USD as there has just been so much risk-on flows in the last week or so that it might have just overshot the mark.

NZD/USD – 240min.


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Rowan Crosby
Asia-Pacific Analyst
Rowan Crosby is a professional futures trader from Sydney, Australia. Rowan has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds and equity futures in the Asian, European and US markets. Rowan holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.
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