Construction Spending Keeps Declining in the US
Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, July 1, 2020•2 min read
Today we had some positive reports being released form the US, first the ADP non-farm employment which showed a 2.37 million increase in employed people during June, while the report for May was revised higher from -2.76 million to more than 3 million. But, the construction spending kept declining, although that report is still for May.
US Construction Spending for May 2020
- US construction spending for May 2020 fell by -2.1% vs. 1.0% estimate.
- Prior month was revised lower to -3.5% from -2.9%
- residential construction fell -3.9% vs. -5.0% last month
- nonresidential fell -0.9% vs. -2.5% last month
- private construction spending fell -3.3% vs. -3.8% last month with residential falling by -4.0% from -5.1% and nonresidential falling by -2.4% vs. -2.3%
- public construction spending rose by 1.2% vs. -2.7% last month. Residential public spending increased 3.6% vs. -2.7%. Nonresidential public spending increase 1.2% vs. -2.7% last month
Although lower than expected the number is for May when uncertainty was still fairly high. Nevertheless the revision to the prior month nearly reached the 2011 a low of -3.7% (see chart below).
SF Fed’s Mary Daly is a nonvoting member on the Federal Reserve Board. She is speaking in a virtual economic forum
Fed’s Daly – speaking in a virtual economic forum – is saying:
- she would be hesitant to call recent positive signs a recovery
- she sees no V-shaped recovery
- sees US unemployment staying above 10% through at the end of the year under her best case scenario
- if we can get virus under control, the recovery can take just 4 or 5 years
- virus path to dictate pace at which unemployment declines
- sees unemployment staying elevated even as workers returning
- we are in a really uncertain place right now
- consumer demand remains much weaker than pre-pandemic
Comments are less positive than the market is expecting. A 4-5 year recovery is certainly not what the market expects or wants (nor the Trump administration into the November election).
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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