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Employment Beat Expectations Again in the US During June

Posted Thursday, July 2, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

Claims are still within millions though

During March and particularly during April, the unemployment surged all across the globe. In US, unemployment approached 20%, as the number of unemployed people reached 40 million. But, in May we saw an increase in payrolls of 2.5 million, while expectations were for another decline. Today’s non-farm payrolls report is showing another increase, as new jobs beat expectations again.

June 2020 US Non-Farm Payrolls data

June non-farm payrolls +4800K vs +3058K expected
May non-farm payrolls was +2509
Unemployment rate 11.1% vs 12.5% expected

Details:

Two month net revision +90K
Participation rate 61.5% vs 61.2% expected
Prior participation rate 60.8%
Avg hourly earnings -1.2% m/m vs -0.7% exp
Prior avg hourly earnings -1.0%
Average hourly earnings +5.0% y/y vs +5.3% exp
Prior avg hourly earnings +6.7%
Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.5 exp
Private payrolls 4767K vs +3000K exp
Manufacturing +356K vs +438K exp
U6 underemployment 18.0% vs 21.2% prior

The BLS said the unemployment rate would have been 1 percentage point higher if workers would have been classified correctly but even with that, it would have been better than expected. This is a very strong number and much better than anticipated. The initial market reaction has been muted in FX but equity futures have pushed to the best levels of the day.