Claims are still within millions though

Employment Beat Expectations Again in the US During June

Posted Thursday, July 2, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

During March and particularly during April, the unemployment surged all across the globe. In US, unemployment approached 20%, as the number of unemployed people reached 40 million. But, in May we saw an increase in payrolls of 2.5 million, while expectations were for another decline. Today’s non-farm payrolls report is showing another increase, as new jobs beat expectations again.

June 2020 US Non-Farm Payrolls data

  • June non-farm payrolls +4800K vs +3058K expected
  • May non-farm payrolls was +2509
  • Unemployment rate 11.1% vs 12.5% expected
  • Two month net revision +90K
  • Participation rate 61.5% vs 61.2% expected
  • Prior participation rate 60.8%
  • Avg hourly earnings -1.2% m/m vs -0.7% exp
  • Prior avg hourly earnings -1.0%
  • Average hourly earnings +5.0% y/y vs +5.3% exp
  • Prior avg hourly earnings +6.7%
  • Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.5 exp
  • Private payrolls 4767K vs +3000K exp
  • Manufacturing +356K vs +438K exp
  • U6 underemployment 18.0% vs 21.2% prior
The BLS said the unemployment rate would have been 1 percentage point higher if workers would have been classified correctly but even with that, it would have been better than expected. This is a very strong number and much better than anticipated. The initial market reaction has been muted in FX but equity futures have pushed to the best levels of the day.

US initial Unemployment Claims and Continuing Claims for the US

  • Initial jobless claims 1427K vs. 1350 K estimate
  • 4 week moving average for initial jobless claims 1503.75k vs 1621.25K
  • Continuing claims 19290K vs 19000K estimate
  • 4 week moving average for continuing claims 19854K vs 20348.5K
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