US Producer Inflation Turns Negative Again in June
The PPI (producer price index) turned negative in February in the US, as crude Oil prices started to decline that month. In March and April, the decline accelerated, after the crash in Oil prices, which sent US WTI crude to -$37. Although, PPI showed a decent increase of 0.4% for May as crude Oil reversed back up and today’s report was expected to show another increase of 0.4% for June, but PPI inflation turned negative again last month. Below is June’s report:
US PPI for the month of June 2020
- PPI final demand for June -0.2% MoM vs 0.4% estimated
- PPI final demand for May MoM was 0.4%
- PPI excluding food and energy MoM -0.3% vs. +0.1% estimate
- PPI excluding food and energy, trade +0.3 vs. +0.1 estimate
- Final demand year on year -0.8% vs. -0.2% estimate
- Final demand excluding food and energy year on year plus 0.1% vs. +0.4% estimate
- Final demand excluding food, energy, trade -0.1% vs. -0.2% estimate
Lower pipeline inflation underscores the need for the Fed to remain on hold for a long time. Remember, before coronavirus the Fed was desperately trying to get inflation back up to the 2% target. The threat is that inflation will remain even lower over the foreseeable future.
Kaplan on US growth in a Fox Business interview
- Base case scenario for GDP is a decline of 4.5 to 5.0% in 2020
- US has lots of excess capacity, expect disinflation
- Kaplan sees US growth in Q3 and Q4
- If we all wear a mask, the economy will grow faster
- In the future there will be a point when Fed will need to show restraint, but during current crisis it’s actions are appropriate
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