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Inflation Picks Up in the US, But Earnings Cool Off
Inflation turned negative during the lock-down months everywhere. The consumer spending declined during that time, which hurt inflation, but the main reason for the decline was the crash in US WTI crude Oil prices, which dived to -$37 as Saudis flooded markets with Oil, despite the OPEC+ agreement.
But, Oil has recovered since then, which has helped inflation recuperate as well. Last month, CPI (consumer price index) jumped higher in the US but earnings softened. Below is the report for June:
YoY CPI Inflation Report
- June CPI YoY +0.6% vs +0.6% expected
- May CPI YoY was +0.1%
- Ex food and energy +1.2% YoY vs +1.1% expected
- Prior ex food and energy +1.2% YoY
MoM CPI
- CPI +0.6% vs +0.5% exp
- Ex food and energy +0.2% vs +0.1% exp
Earnings:
- Real avg weekly earnings +4.6% YoY vs +7.3% prior
- Real avg hourly earnings +4.3% YoY vs +6.4% prior
Earnings have been boosted by government programs and it will be interesting to see how that holds up when they run out (or are extended at a lower value) at the end of this month.
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