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USD Continues To Fall Ahead Of FED Announcements

Posted Wednesday, July 29, 2020 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

It’s been another rough day for the Greenback as values continue to slip across the majors. With the July FED Announcements only about an hour away, losses vs the euro, British pound, and Swiss franc have highlighted the forex action. However, some interesting economic news suggests that the USD may be ready to rebound.

Aside from a month-over-month plunge in MBA Mortgage Applications (July 24), today’s numbers look pretty good. Here are a few of the most important:

Event                                                          Actual                Projected           Previous

Goods Trade Balance (June)                  $-70.64B                   NA                  $-75.26B

Pending Home Sales (MoM, June)            16.6%                   15.0%                   44.3%

Pending Home Sales (YoY, June)                6.3%                   -10.2%                   -5.1%

The key takeaway from this group are the Pending Home Sales reports from June. These figures bode well for American real estate and suggest that demand remains strong. On the energy front, EIA Crude Oil Stocks (July 24) came in at -10.612 million barrels. This is an epic shift from last week’s 4.892 million and reinforces summer seasonality. At this hour (12:30 PM EST), WTI crude oil is hanging tough just above $41.25.

Let’s take a look at where the EUR/USD stands just ahead of today’s FED Announcements.

EUR/USD Posts Huge Pre-FED Monthly Gains For July

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the extent of July’s gains for the EUR/USD. Rates have broken out to the bull and are on the doorstep of 1.1800.

EUR/USD, Monthly Chart
EUR/USD, Monthly Chart

For the near future, there’s one level on my radar for the EUR/USD:

  • Resistance(1): 62% Fibonacci Retracement, 1.1821

Bottom Line: Given the current fundamentals, there’s little reason to believe that the EUR/USD’s bull run is over. Barring a major revelation during this afternoon’s FED presser, a test of monthly topside resistance is extremely likely.

Until elected, I’ll have sell orders queued up from 1.1819. With an initial stop loss at 1.1857, this trade yields 38 pips on a standard 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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