AUD/USD has been bullish since the middle of March, having climbed more than 12 cents from the bottom, up to the top, which was put in place last week at 0.7240s. During the climb, moving averages such as the 100 SMA (green) have been providing support on the H4 chart.

Although, since the middle of last week we have seen this pair retrace lower, as the USD has finally started to come back, after being bearish for more than two months. The price started to reverse after forming a couple of doji candlesticks at the top, which are bearish reversing signals.

The price slipped below the 50 SMA (yellow), which has turned into resistance now. AUD/USD tried to turn bullish earlier today, but it failed at the 50 SMA. Now the price has reversed back down and it seems to be heading for the 100 SMA. When it gets there, we will follow it closely to see for a bullish reversing candlestick. If we get that, we might go long on AUD/USD at the 100 SMA.