Durable goods orders posted some major declines in March and April in the US, during lock-downs. But we saw some decent increase in the last few months. In May sales increased by 15.7%, while cooling off at 7.6% in June. In July they jumped higher again by 11.2%, which was revised higher today to 11.4%. The report for August showed a cool off, but the real number was stronger than what the headline tells.

US durable goods orders for August

• August prelim durable goods orders +0.4% vs +1.4% expected
• Prior was +11.4% (revised to +11.7%)
• Durables ex transportation +0.4% vs +1.0% expected
• Prior ex transportation +2.6% (revised to +3.2%)
• Capital goods orders non-defense ex-air +1.8% vs +1.0% expected
• Prior capital goods orders non-defense ex-air +1.9% (revised to +2.5%)
• Capital goods shipments non-defense ex-air +1.5% vs +0.8% expected
• Prior capital goods shipments non-defense ex-air +2.4% (revised to +2.8%)

As mentioned above, don’t be fooled by the headline, core orders were strong in August with an upward revision. The strong shipments numbers are also good for Q3 GDP. So, the economic recovery is going well in the US, with the data supporting it.