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UoM Consumer Sentiment Turning Lower Is A Negative Signal for the US Economy

The consumer sentiment dived in March and April in the US, as the  University of Michigan report showed back then. But as the country reopened and the economy started to rebound, the sentiment started to improve as well. Last month the UoM sentiment increased to 81.2 points in the initial reading and in the second one it was revised higher for 81.8 points.

This month the sentiment was expected to improve further to 82 points, but it fell to 77 points instead. This is a sign that the economy will likely weaken in the coming months, as the US consumer refrains from spending.

 

University of Michigan consumer sentiment for November preliminary

  • University Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary 77.0 vs. 82.0 estimate. Last month 81.2
  • expectations index falls to 71.3 from 79.1 estimate. Last month 79.2
  • one year inflation expectations 2.8% vs. 2.6% last month
  • 5 -10 year inflation expectations 2.6% vs. 2.4% last month
The index is at the lowest level since August when the index was at 74.1. The low for the year came in at 71.8. Interviews conducted following the election recorded of substantial negative shift in Republicans expectations and no gain among Democrats. The survey began on October 28 and concluded late on November 10.
Richard Curtin, director of the survey said: “In the months ahead, the partisan gap is likely to enlarge, although the gains will be limited until a potential vaccine is approved and widely distributed”.
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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