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Manufacturing Declines in New York Area in November

New York Empire State manufacturing index softened in November

Skerdian Meta•Monday, November 16, 2020•1 min read
All sectors of the US economy went through a big contraction during March and April, as major parts of the the country went into lock-downs. But it has bounced back nicely since the reopening in May and it has been keeping the pace throughout all sectors. Although, the Empire State manufacturing index showed that the activity declined in November in the New York area.     New York-area manufacturing survey November Empire Fed manufacturing +6.3 points vs +13.5 expected October Empire Fed manufacturing was +10.5 Details: new orders index 3.7 vs. 12.3 last month shipments 6.3 vs. 17.8 last month number of employees 9.4 vs. 7.2 last month average workweek 4.8 vs. 16.1 last month unfilled orders -11.9 vs. -6.6 last month prices paid 46.4 vs. 27.8 last month prices receives 23.2 vs. 5.3 last month inventories -8.6 vs. -14.6 last month six-month index 33.6 vs 32.8 This isn't a big red flag but this is the first manufacturing data point of the month and it shows some unexpected softness, particularly in orders. The worry would be that the pull-forward and pandemic sales are starting to fade but it's way too premature to worry about that.  

All sectors of the US economy went through a big contraction during March and April, as major parts of the the country went into lock-downs. But it has bounced back nicely since the reopening in May, and it has been keeping the pace throughout all sectors. Although, the Empire State manufacturing index showed that activity has declined in the New York area in November.

New York-area manufacturing survey

  • November Empire Fed manufacturing +6.3 points vs +13.5 expected
  • October Empire Fed manufacturing was +10.5
Details:
  • new orders index 3.7 vs. 12.3 last month
  • shipments 6.3 vs. 17.8 last month
  • number of employees 9.4 vs. 7.2 last month
  • average workweek 4.8 vs. 16.1 last month
  • unfilled orders -11.9 vs. -6.6 last month
  • prices paid 46.4 vs. 27.8 last month
  • prices received 23.2 vs. 5.3 last month
  • inventories -8.6 vs. -14.6 last month
  • six-month index 33.6 vs 32.8
This isn’t a big red flag but it is the first manufacturing data point of the month, and it shows some unexpected softness, particularly in orders. The worry would be that the pull-forward and pandemic sales are starting to fade, but it’s way too early to worry about that.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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