The overall trend is bearish for unemployment claims

US Economy Cools Off in November

Posted Thursday, November 19, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

The US economy mad a strong rebound after the recession in Q2 due to the lock-downs. It has kept the pace quite well since then, especially in the last few months, when the Eurozone economy has faltered again, particularly now that the new lock-downs are coming. Although, in November the US economy is showing some signs of weakness. The manufacturing reports have shown a softening in the activity, while unemployment claims bounced to 742K.


November Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index


  • November Philly FED 26.3 vs 23.0 expected
  • October Philly FED was 32.3
  • Full report


  • New orders  +37.9 vs +42.6 prior
  • Shipments 24.9 vs 44.9 prior
  • Employment +27.2 vs +12.7 prior
  • Prices paid +38.9 vs +28.5 prior
  • Future index +44.3 vs +62.7 prior
The Empire Fed was at 6.5 vs 13.5 expected at the start of the week, so there was likely some negative bias in the consensus today.

Initial Unemployment and Continuing Claims Report

  • initial claims 742K vs. 700K estimate
  • continuing claims 6372K vs. 6400K estimate
  • ironically, the initial claims 4 week moving average is the same as the number today at 742K. That is down from 755.75K last week
  • continuing claims 4 week moving average 7054.5 K vs. 7579.5 K last week
  • pandemic unemployment assistance 320.237K vs. 296.374K last week
  • Continuing PUA claims 8.7 vs 9.4 two weeks ago
The gain in initial claims is the 1st after 4 straight declines.  It may be a precursor to increases due to surging pandemic and new business restrictions.  Note that this is non-farm payrolls survey week.
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