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Contradicting Services Report From the US for November

Today we had two employment report getting released from the US, one from ISM and the other from Markit. They were released 15 minutes apart, while showing a totally different picture. Although, this sector remained in a decent shape in both reports, despite the ISM one cooling off. Although, both reports show a decent activity, especially compared to Europe, here the service sector is in recession again.

 

  • November final Markit services index 58.4 points vs 57.5 expected
  • Highest reading since April 2015
  • Prelim was 57.7 points
  • October services index was 56.9 points
  • Hiring rose at the highest pace on record
  • Input  prices  rose  at  the  quickest  pace  since  data  collection  began  in  October  2009
  • “Firms sought to pass on higher input costs to clients through an accelerated increase in selling prices. The rise in output charges was the sharpest since the series began over 11 years ago.”
  • Full report
The preliminary report was a big market mover last week and the final data is even stronger. The Fed doesn’t want to talk about inflation but those are some signs of trouble on the inflation front.

ISM services index for November 2020:

  • November ISM services index 55.9 vs 55.8 expected
  • October ISM services index was 56.6

Details:

  • Business activity 58.0 vs. 61.2 last month
  • New orders 57.2 vs. 58.5 last month
  • Backlog of orders 50.7 vs. 54.4 last month
  • Employment to 51.5 from 50.1 last month
  • New export orders 50.4 vs. 53.7 last month
  • Imports 55.0 vs. 52.5 last month
  • Supplier deliveries 57.0 vs. 56.2 last month
  • Inventory change 49.3 vs. 53.1 last month
  • Inventory sentiment 49.9 vs. 51.1 last month
The ISM services report and Markit services PMI are on completely different pages at the moment. This one is at the lowest since May, while the Markit survey is at the highest since 2015.
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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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