245k new jobs/month is still a decent level

US Employment Cools Off in November, Earnings Increase

Posted Friday, December 4, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

The US employment report for November was released a while ago and it was quite mixed. The unemployment rate fell, but so did the participation rate, which balance each-other out. Earnings on the other hand increased, which is a positive factor. But the cool off in new jobs was quite large, which is is weighing on the USD again.


  • November non-farm employment +245K vs +460K expected
  • October non-farm employment was 638K
  • Unemployment rate November 6.7% vs 6.8% expected
  • October unemployment rate 6.9%
  • Participation rate 61.5% vs 61.7% expected
  • Prior participation rate 61.7%
The participation rate declined by 2 points last month, so if participation would have held steady, the unemployment rate would have risen 0.1%.
  • Underemployment rate 12.1% vs 12.1% prior
  • Average hourly earnings MoM +0.3% vs +0.1% expected
  • Average hourly earnings YoY +4.4% vs +4.2% expected
  • Average weekly hours 34.8 vs 34.8 expected
  • Two month net revision +11K
  • Change in private payrolls +344K vs +540K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls +27K vs +40K expected
  • Government jobs -99K with 93K of those temporary census workers
  • The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 385,000 to 3.9 million
The FX market isn’t quite sure what to do with this. There’s a touch of US dollar weakness but it’s a mixed bag. Traders bought the USD initially after the report was released, but then it reversed lower and is declining across the board at the moment.
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