USD/CAD has been trading on a bearish trend since March this year, after the surge in the USD ended. The US Dollar turned bearish after that surge and has been declining since the middle of March, picking up pace in the last two months after the US elections.
The 100 SMA is holding as support on the H4 chart
As a result, USD/CAD has been falling during most of this year, breaking the big round level at 1.30 and pushing below 1.27 for a while last week. Although, a bottom was put in place just below 1.27 and this week we saw a retrace higher, which ended right at the 200 SMA (purple) on the H4 chart.
That moving average turned into resistance on this chart and the previous low at 1.2930s added to the resistance as well. USD/CAD reversed back down yesterday and lost around 100 pips. But, the 100 SMA (green) seems to have turned into support for this pair. If this moving average holds, then we might see a bounce higher, otherwise the bearish trend will continue for USD/CAD.