UK GDP Takes A Dive in November As Expected
UK economy heading down again, as the GDP contracts in November
Skerdian Meta•Friday, January 15, 2021•1 min read
The UK economy was already weak before the restrictions started again in November. The service sector, which is the largest one, fell into contraction in September, and the rest of the economy followed suit in November, as restrictions tightened. As things are gong, it’s going to get worse before it gets any better, with the lockdowns intensifying in December and January.
- November GDP MoM -2.6% vs -4.6% expected
- October GDP MoM +0.4%; revised to +0.6%
- GDP 3m/3m +4.1% vs +3.3% expected
- Prior GDP 3m/3m +10.2%; revised to +10.5%
The UK economy contracted in the month of November, as lockdown measures were reinstated during the month. That said, the decline was much less than estimated, so that is at least a bit of a plus, but the market isn’t all too interested at this stage.
The focus remains more on how things are going at the moment, and the outlook for the future, so data stretching back to last year – especially November – is rather outdated by now. ONS notes that the service sector was the main drag on November economic output, with activity running 9.9% below the level seen in February last year.
Below, you can see the factory activity data that was released at the same time:
- Manufacturing production MoM November +0.7% vs +1.0% expected
- Manufacturing production MoM October +1.7%
- Manufacturing production Y0Y -3.8% vs -4.8% y/y expected
- Prior manufacturing production Y0Y -7.1%
- Industrial production MoM November -0.1% vs +0.5% expected
- Prior industrial production MoM +1.3%
- Industrial production YoY -4.7% vs -4.2% expected
- Prior industrial production YoY -5.5%
- Construction output MoM November +1.9% vs +0.5% expected
- Prior construction output MoM +1.0%
- Construction output YoY -1.4% vs -8.0% expected
- Prior construction output -7.4%
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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