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IMF Revises Global GDP Forecast Higher for 2021

Posted Tuesday, January 26, 2021 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

IMF 2021 GDP Forecast

The International Monetary Fund GDP projection for 2021 was positive at 5.2%, in contrast to the 2020 GDP. Today’s forecasts for this year were revised higher to 5.5%. Most major economic zones/countries are also revised higher, apart from UK and the Eurozone, which have been revised lower, after the new restrictions in the last months.

IMF Global GDP Forecast

2021 GDP forecast to 5.5% from 5.2%
2022 GDP growth of 4.1%
Forecasts for 2020 of -3.5% vs -4.4% in October
Cites ‘exceptional uncertainty’ about the outlook due to renewed waves and variants
Trade -9.6% in 2020. IMF sees a rebound of 8.1% this year and 6.3% in 2022
US 2021 GDP growth of 5.1% vs 3.1% in October.
Sees India 2021 GDP 11.5% vs 8.8% in October
China 2021 GDP vs 8.2% in October
Eurozone 2021 GDP +4.2% in 2021 vs +5.2% in October
UK +4.5% in 2021 vs +5.9% in October
Japan +3.1% in 2021 vs +2.3% in October
Canada +3.6% in 2021 vs +5.2% in October
Full report

The forecast says there are three key questions on how the outlook will evolve:

First, how will restrictions needed to curb transmission affect activity in the near term before vaccines begin delivering effective society-wide protection? Second, how will vaccine-rollout expectations and policy support affect activity? Third, how will financial conditions and commodity prices evolve?
GDP

Here’s another way to see the growth debt from covid through 2022. It highlights the impressive rebound in the US; and that’s before what’s likely to be a year of aggressive stimulus.