Looks Like the Eurozone Missed Another Recession in Q4 2020
The Eurozone economy fell into recession in Q2 of 2020, with the German economy declining by more than 10%, due to the lockdowns, which hurt everyone. In Q3 we saw a strong bounce of 8%, but with the new coronavirus restrictions in winter and lockdowns being implemented in the region once again, expectations were for a possible recession in Q4. But, although the French report was negative, it seems like the Eurozone economy is going to miss a recession narrowly, taking into account the German and Spanish GDP reports today.
Germany Q4 preliminary GDP
- Q4 preliminary GDP QoQ +0.1% vs 0.0% expected
- Q3 GDP was+8.5%
- Q4 GDP YoY (non-seasonally adjusted) -2.9% vs -3.2% expected
- Q3 GDP YoY was -3.9%
- Q4 GDP YoY (working day adjusted) -3.9% vs -4.0% expected
- Prior was -4.0%
German economic output basically ground to a halt in the final quarter of last year, barely escaping from posting a contraction again, following a robust performance in Q3. This does reflect slight optimism that economic activity wasn’t as bad as feared towards the end of last year, but the threat of a double-dip recession still remains a possibility.
Spain Q4 preliminary GDP
Spanish GDP grew by 0.4% in Q4
- Q4 preliminary GDP QoQ +0.4% vs -1.5% expected
- Q3 GDP was +16.4%
- Q4 GDP YoY -9.1% vs -10.8% expected
- Q3 GDP YoY was -9.0%
Spanish economic activity beat the estimates, posting a quarterly growth in the final quarter of last year, in what appears to be a one of the few bright spots in the Eurozone economy.
French Q4 preliminary GDP
- French Q4 preliminary GDP QoQ -1.3% vs -4.0% expected
- Prior (Q3) GDP QoQ +18.7%; revised to +18.5%
- Q4 GDP YoY -5.0% vs -7.6% expected
- Prior (Q3) -3.9%
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