Employment has been improving in the US since last June, after the lock-downs ended. But in December, we saw a dip, as ADP employment fell by 123K, which was also reflected in the main employment report. But in January, we saw an improvement, as ADP employment turned positive again, and this was also revised higher today. For February, we expected to see another increase, but it cooled off instead, so we will see whether this reflects on the jobs report on Friday.

• February ADP employment +117K vs +200K expected
• January was 174K (revised to 195K)
• Goods producing jobs -14K vs +19K prior
• Services providing jobs +131K vs +156K prior
• Full report

There’s a big hole for the US to climb out of and that’s what the Fed is entirely focused on.

I posted this chart earlier in the week; it highlights how many jobs the US needs to create to get back to the pre-pandemic trend: