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Volatility remains high, but the bias in on the downside

Oil Waiting for OPEC+ to Decide on Production Quotas

Posted Thursday, April 1, 2021 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

As we have mentioned often in recent weeks, crude Oil has been bullish for about a year, climbing more than $100 from the bottom at $-37 last April. But, it retreated lower during March and the uncertainty has been increasing this week, with the OPEC+ meeting approaching.

OPEC+ has production quotas in place, which has been one of the main reasons for the bullish trend, together with the US and Chinese economies expanding fast. Although, yesterday we saw a $2 decline in the evening, as jitters about OPEC+ dropping some of the quotas increased.

Earlier today Reuters was out with the headlines, citing sources who have seen a document after the OPEC+ JMMC meeting yesterday

  • OPEC+ JMMC reportedly notes that oil stocks remain above 2015-19 average
  • OPEC+ JMMC recognises that prevailing volatility in oil market structure is a signal of fragile market conditions
  • The document adds that OPEC+ JMMC recommends to extend “compensation period for overproduction” until September 2021.
If anything, the document seems to be leaning towards a suggestion to maintain production cuts – which is what is expected – in the decision today. But we’ll see if OPEC+ members will have the propensity to surprise later on in the day.

Although, the latest report citing the JMMC meeting yesterday supports the idea that the bloc is largely expected to maintain the current level of production cuts. That saw Oil climb more than $1.50 a while ago today, but OPEC+ said to discuss options that include rollover and gradual oil output increase later today.

Reuters reported again, citing sources familiar with the matter, that a rollover of existing production cuts is what the market is largely expecting now but the question is, for how long and what are the terms. Reuters sources are saying that there may be a proposal for a gradual increase in output up to 500k bpd moving forward.

This is turning WTI Oil bearish again, which has lost around $1 in about an hour now. We have a sell signal open here since last Friday, that we opened at $60.90s, which is 150 pips in profit at the moment. Now OPEC+ will decide whether Oil will remain bullish or turn bearish.

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