Crude Oil turned bearish in the first week of March, after being bullish for nearly a year, since it reversed higher from $-37 back in April last year. Oil climbed more than $105 from the bottom to the top, as we explained in our 2021 Oil forecast, but turned bearish last month at $68.

The price lost more than $10, as US WTI Oil fell to $57.30, but it has been trading sideways in a range since the middle of March, bouncing between $57-58 at the bottom and $61-62 at the top. We booked nearly 300 pips, trading the range, selling Oil at $61 and closing it last week.

Since Tuesday last week, buyers were finding it tough to push above $60 and the 50 SMA (yellow) which was providing resistance on the H4 chart. OPEC+ decided to increase production after having quotas in place for about a year.

As a result, crude Oil turned bearish last week, although today we are seeing a bullish move, which has taken the price nearly $2 higher. Buyers pushed above $60 and above the 50 and 100 SMAs. Now crude Oil is heading for $61.

There haven’t been any updates regarding Oil, but the news about the troubles in iran’s nuclear plants might have played a part. Eyes are on a potential Iran deal but the world powers are running out of time ahead of an election there.

Covid remains a big issue with cases in India spiking at the moment. At the same time, Indian oil demand is almost back to pre-covid levels, so that’s tough to square. Merkel is pushing for further restrictions in germany, but the UK is already opening up on the other hand. Anyway, we are following the price action and might open another sell signal in the price gets close to $61 and forms a bearish reversing pattern.