Sales are surging but let's if they will keep the pace in April

More Signs That the US Economy Is Leading the World, As Data Keeps Getting Better

Posted Thursday, April 15, 2021 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

Sales are surging but let's if they will keep the pace in April

The US economy was the first to bounce back post the first lockdowns in Spring last year. Manufacturing activity bounced back and kept growing. Services were slow to bounce, with the social unrest in summer last year, which is still going to some degree in certain areas.

But, services caught up with manufacturing and are expending by the fastest pace in quite a long time. Now with the new stimulus package, the situation is getting even better, despite restrictions still in place in some states.

Today’s data was quite impressive as well, especially the retail sales, which surged in March. Inflation is also growing, so the FED will start to acknowledge the economic boom soon. That’s when the USD will start to turn really bullish in the long run.

March US Retail Sales Report

March advance retail sales +9.8% vs +5.8% expected
Prior was -3.0%
Retail sales ex auto +8.4% vs +5.0% expected
Retail sales ex auto and gas +8.2% vs +6.4% expected
Retail sales control group +6.9% vs +7.2% expected
Sales up 14.3% from the same period a year ago vs +6.3% prior
Motor vehicle sales and parts +15.1% m/m
Full report

Prior numbers and revisions

February retail sales -3.0% (revised to -2.7%)
February retail sales ex auto and gas -3.3% (revised to -3.1%)
February retail sales control group -3.5% (revised to -3.4%)

The headline is extremely strong but some of that was baked in after a jump in new car sales in the month that should have already been priced in. The control group metric is better at stripping out some of the one-off metrics and it was a tad below consensus so that almost balances it out.

At the end of the day though, we have retail sales up almost 10% and the control group up 6.9%. That’s strong any way you slice it.

Looking through the categories, there’s nothing remotely negative with only food and beverage stores below 1% and that’s assuredly because people resumed eating out.

US April 2021 Empire Fed Manufacturing Index

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April Empire Fed manufacturing +26.3 vs +20.0 expected
Prior was +17.4
New orders +26.9 vs +9.1 prior
Prices paid +74.7 vs +64.4 prior (highest since 2008 when it peaked at 77.9)
Prices received +34.9 vs +23.9 (record high since survey began in 2000)
Six month conditions +39.8 vs +36.4 prior
Employment +13.9 vs +9.4 prior

This is a great report but that jump in prices paid is going to get the market’s attention. What’s encouraging for the longer term is that the capital expenditure index continues to trend higher and is not far off the best levels since 2005.

US Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims Current Week

Initial jobs claims 576K versus 700 K estimate. The claims fell 193K from last weeks 769K last week (was 744K).
Four-week moving average of initial claims 683K versus 730.25K last week
Continuing claims 3731K versus 3700K estimate
Four-week moving average of continuing claims 3763K vs 3861K last week
During the week ending March 27, 51 states reported 7,053,575 continued weekly claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits and 51 states reported 5,160,267 continued claims for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 3 were in California (+39,136), New York (+16,771), Oklahoma (+4,615), Michigan (+3,364), and Tennessee (+3,257),
The largest decreases were in Alabama (-13,318), Ohio (-9,358), Georgia (-5,659), Kentucky (-3,415), and Texas (-3,325)

The improvement in the initial claims was what the market has been expecting over the last two weeks. It is the lowest reading since the pandemic began.

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