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Another Attempt at Shorting USD/JPY, This Time at the 50 SMA

Posted Tuesday, April 27, 2021 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

USD/JPY has been quite volatile recently. Tis pair fell around 9 cents last yer, falling from around 112 to 102.60s. But, it reversed after the first week of January as the USD decline stopped and climbed pretty close to 111, which means that the JPY turned quite bearish, one of the weakest currencies among major ones.

Although, the USD started turning weaker again this month while safe havens were attracting some bids, as the $120 climb in Gold showed. As a result, USD/JPY turned bearish again, declining 350 pips, with the 20 SMA (gray) providing solid resistance and pushing the price down.

Yesterday we saw a climb to the 20 SMA on the H4 chart and decided to short the retrace there. But buyers continued pushing higher, especially as BOJ pleaded to keep the money coming if the economy needs it. But, the 50 SMA is acting as resistance today, so we decided to open another sell signal up here, now hoping for a bearish reversal down.

BOJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda Press Conference

  • Will not hesitate to ease policy further if needed
  • Risks are tilted to the downside
  • Consumption should stall at low levels during state of emergency
  • Still believes 2% price target can be achieved
  • Regrettable that it is taking time to reach 2% price target
  • Expects bond yields to move within clarified range
  • Will not intentionally move long-term yields around
The same old theme from Kuroda really, so the impact on the JPY won’t likely continue. In case you missed it, the BOJ kept monetary policy unchanged at its meeting earlier today.
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