1. Home
  2. /News
  3. /Closing Our Long Term EUR/USD Sell Signal Ahead of the FED’s Meeting Minutes

Closing Our Long Term EUR/USD Sell Signal Ahead of the FED’s Meeting Minutes

EUR/USD is hanging on above 1.18, waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes later this evening

Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, July 7, 2021•2 min read
This FOMC policy meeting holds enormous importance

The long term bullish momentum in EUR/USD seems to have come to an end. Buyers have been having making new highs above 1.2360s since January this year, despite the bounce in Q2. The FED has been keeping the monetary policy extremely accomodative while the US government has also been pouring money, which has been keeping the USD bearish.

But, this pair has shown weakness, as it failed to reach January’s highs, while in the last month it has reversed down. The price fell to 1.1850 last month and bounced off there, but the 200 SMA (purple) turned into resistance on the daily chart and reversed

EUR/USD

down, which is another bearish sign.

But, we decided to close our sell forex signal for more than 160 pips, as we head into the FED minutes from the last meeting, where they made a sudden hawkish shift. They mentioned rate hikes which will be on  the minutes today, so the market is anticipating it.

The 200 daily SMA rejected EUR/USD after the small bounce

The risk is if FED members argued hard about it which means that the hawkish shift is not too strong. They tried to play down the hawkish reversal already, so we will see today exactly what they discussed. If we see a bounce higher to 1.20 after the FED, then we might open another sell forex signal in this pair. The European Commission released its latest quarterly projections a while ago which were revised higher from the previous projections, but they are not helping the Euro.

EUR/USD Live Chart

EUR/USD

European Commission Quarterly Projections

  • Eurozone 2021 GDP growth forecast 4.8% (previously 4.3%)
  • Eurozone 2022 GDP growth forecast 4.5% (previously 4.4%)
  • Germany 2021 GDP growth forecast 3.6% (previously 3.4%)
  • France 2021 GDP growth forecast 6.0% (previously 5.7%)
  • Eurozone 2021 inflation forecast 1.9%
  • Eurozone 2022 inflation forecast 1.4%
There are mainly upward revisions to the report with regards to this year’s projections, with a bit of a mixed bag for next year. Of note, the commission underscores that they see upside risks to inflation and overall risks to the economy are balanced.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

Related Articles

FED Powell's Worst-Case Scenario: Freight Slows, Stock Markets Fall or Resolution?
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has sounded the alarm on a potential trade standstill reminiscent of the pandemic era — a scenario...
26 minutes ago
img
No Tariffs, No Relief for the USD, While EUR, GBP, CAD, JPY All Benefit
2 days ago
img
Forex Signals April 18: Earnings on Good Friday Can Send DJIA Up or Down Under
2 days ago

Comments

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
0 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

HFM

Doo Prime

XM

Best Forex Brokers

trend BTC 0.0000
trend ETH 0.0000
trend EUR/USD 0.0000
trend DOW 0.0000
Alerts Rates Calendar Signals