Safe havens have received a boost with the beginning of the Ukraine tensions, which have turned the risk sentiment negative. Stock markets have turned bearish, particularly in Europe, with the German DAX index falling from around 16,300 points to 13,200 points, which is a massive dive.

Gold, on the other hand, has been really bullish since the beginning of February when it was trading at around $1,780. It failed to push above the $2,000 level late last month, but after pulling back lower buyers are back at it, resuming the upward move again.

Moving averages have been doing a great job acting as support, with the smaller one such as the 20 SMA (gray) doing so when the trend picks up pace, while the 50 SMA held as support late last month when the retreat was deeper off the highs. Today’s employment reports from the US were quite strong as shown below, but the conflict in Ukraine is setting the market sentiment right now so the bullish momentum continues in Gold. We are looking to buy Gold on a retreat to the 20 SMA gain.

Gold Daily Chart – MAs Keep Pushing Higher

The 20 SMA is acting as support now, indicating strong buying pressure

US February Employment Change

• February non-farm payrolls 678K vs 400K estimate
• January employment change was 467K revised to 481K
• Non-farm payroll 678 vs 400K estimate
• Two-month net revision +92K

US February Unemployment Rate

• Unemployment rate 3.8% v 3.9% estimate.
• Participation rate 62.3% vs 62.2% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 7.2% vs 7.1% prior
• Average hourly earnings MoM 0.0% vs 0.5% estimate and 0.7% prior
• Average hourly earnings YoY 5.1% vs 5.8% estimate 5.7% revised to 5.5%
• Average weekly hours 34.7 vs 34.6 estimated and 34.5 prior
• Change in private payrolls 654K vs 378K estimate. Prior revised to 448K vs 444K
• Manufacturing payrolls 36K vs. 23K estimate. Prior revised to 16 K from 13 K

Overall, the job gains continue to show strong growth with the unemployment rate falling as well toward full employment. However, the wage data was contained with earnings on the month virtually flat and the YoY declining to 5.1% from 5.5%.

Gold XAU Live CHart

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