Forex Signals Brief April 28: USD Q1 GDP in Focus
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read
Yesterday the USD strength was the main theme in the markets once again. The USD continued the bullish momentum that it started last week and doesn’t seem to be stopping. EUR/USD fell below 106 and is heading to the lowest levels in five years, as markets anticipate a 50 bps rate hike from the FED next month and several such rate hikes. USD/JPY resumed the uptrend again ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting.
The main economic release yesterday was the CPI inflation report from Australia which showed a jump in Q1 of this year, from 1.3% in Q4 of last year to 2.1%. This means that a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia is a done deal in the next meeting, but the Aussie didn’t benefit much from it, since the USD strength prevailed once again. Stock markets and cryptocurrencies stopped the decline but didn’t show much willingness to move higher either.
The Data Today
Today starts with the Policy Rate from the Bank of Japan which is not expected to change, while it announced recently buying vast amounts of bonds, which should keep the JPY bearish. Spanish flash CPI (consumer price index) will be released in the European session and is expected to show a cool off in April, from 9.8% to 9.1%, which is an early indication for the European inflation numbers to come.
Later in the US session, we have the US Q1 GDP report to be released, which is also expected to show a cool-off, from 6.9% to 1.1%. That’s a big slowdown but Q1 wasn’t such a good quarter and now currencies are focused more on inflation and central banks rather than the GDP.
Forex Signal Update
Yesterday we had three forex signals, all of which closed in profit. We laid off USD/JPY after the volatility of the recent days. Although, we remained short on JPY on another pair and long on USD, which resulted to be a good strategy.
USD/CHF – Buy Signal
The US Dollar has been bullish since summer last year but has picked up incredible pace in the last week, so we have been long on the USD. We decided to buy USD/CHF yesterday after the small retreat to the 20 MSA (gray) on the H1 chart. The uptrend resumed quickly after that and we booked profit on our trade, which was a pretty simple one.
Terra LUNA has been one of the most bullish cryptocurrencies, which has continued to make new highs until earlier this month, despite the crypto market being bearish since November. The price retreated after the lower after almost reaching $120 but LUNA/USD found support at the 100 SMA (green) on the daily chart.
We decided to open a buy signal there and are well in profit now, but we have seen a pullback in the last week. Although, this pullback is looking slow and weak so buyers will resume control again once the sentiment improves in the market.