Forex Signals Brief for May 9: USD Resumes Uptrend After the FED Retreat

Last Week’s Market Wrap

The market attention last week was in anticipation of the FED meeting which was held in Wednesday. Although, the manufacturing and services data from China reserved a surprise as it showed a deep contraction in April. That didn’t stop crude oil from closing the second week in gains above $110. Although other commodities closed the third week in decline, the rise in crude oil is as a result of larger geopolitical games.

The US Dollar had been on a bullish trend for months now but it retreated more than 100 pips lower after the FED decided to hike interest rates by 50 basis points and chairman Jerome Powell announced several such hikes in the coming meetings. But the market wasn’t satisfied by that, expecting a 75 bps rate hike in the next meeting, which sent the USD down. But, at the moment there’s nothing better to buy since all central banks are hiking rates fast, and therefore the USD resumed the uptrend toward the end if the week and closed it near the highs.

The Data Agenda Today

Today the calendar is light, starting with the minutes from the Bank of Japan meeting, which will probably add further fuel to USD/JPY after closing above 130 last week. The trade balance from China is expected to grow, although there might be a correction after the contraction in the Chinese economy last month.

The Sentix investor confidence indicator is expected to deteriorate further this month, falling deeper into negative territory for the third month. That’s the most important data for today, which is not expected to move markets, so we will see how this behave in relation to the USD.

Forex Signal Update

 USD/JPY has been on a massive bullish trend for a long time, which has picked incredible pace in recent month after the conflict in Ukraine started, when the JPYU should have turned bullish and this pair bearish. As a result, we have opened many buy signals during this time, most of which have closed in profit. We opened the last one as this pair retreated to the 50 SMA (yellow) where we decided to buy.   

USD/JPY – Buy Signal

USD/JPY – 240 min chart

GBP/USD – Buy Signal 

 GBP/USD has also been on a bearish trend for a long time which has picked up pace recently as the USD turns bullish. Meanwhile, the GBP turns bearish, despite the fourth rate hike from Bank of England last week. So, we have been selling this pair as it retraced higher and we decided to do so last Friday, but accidentally pressed the wrong button and opened a buy signal instead, which closed in loss as the decline continued.

EUR/GBP – 15 min chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Should We Buy BTC As It Approaches Support?

BTC/USD made a new record high last November, as it reached $69,000, but since then sellers have been in control. The last attempt to turn bullish ended at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and the price returned below $40,000 again. Now the price is trending below $35,000 where the first support stands, while the next one comes at around $30,000 where we plan to buy again.

Will the support hold for Bitcoin?

Trying to Buy Fantom FTM at Support

FTM/USD used to be quite bullish until the middle of January as it retested the previous highs from October last year. But the Wonderland controversy weighed on the DeFi coins early this year, which made Fantom join the rest of the crypto market which was on a bearish trend since November.

Then the departure of key personnel such as Andrew Cronje weighed further on Fantom, which broke below $1 and below the support zone around $0.90. But the last support area above $0.60 seems to have held its ground and now Fantom is bouncing higher. We are thinking of buying this cryptocurrency, but would like to see a retest of the support zone.

The support above $0.60 held for FTM/USD