Following a three-week decline, the gold price prints minor losses while attempting to defend the $1,800 level during Monday’s Asian session. As a result, the yellow metal justifies the risk-off mood amid fears of an economic slowdown, but it remains dormant amid the US holiday, as well as a cautious mood ahead of this week’s key data/events. Fears of a recession grew on Friday after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to two-year lows. The increased political unrest between Russia and Ukraine and China’s failure to impress buyers exacerbated the risk-off mood.

Nonetheless, June’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level in two years, at 53.0, versus 54.9 expected and 56.1 previously. According to the details, the Employment Index fell to 47.3 from 49.6, and the New Orders Index started falling to 49.2 from 55.1. Finally, the Prices Paid Index fell to 78.5 from 82.2, versus market expectations of 81.0. It should be noted that the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June fell to 52.7, the lowest level since July 2020, compared to the flash estimate of 52.4 and 57 in May.

Furthermore, Russia’s claim of complete control over Lysychansk and concerns about China’s ability to re-establish the economic transition appear to be putting downward pressure on gold prices. Among these bets, US 10-year Treasury yields fell the most in a week since February, while Wall Street benchmarks struggled to find a clear direction after Friday’s surprise gains. Furthermore, S&P 500 Futures fall half a percent by press time to reflect the risk-off mood.

Looking ahead, the US Independence Day holiday, as well as recently going to ease hawkish bets on the Fed’s next moves, may limit GOLD XAU/USD moves. However, June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes and the US Jobs Report will be closely watched this week.

Gold Technical Outlook

Gold price traded with solid negativity in the previous sessions to reach a few pips away from our hoped-for target of 1780.25, influenced by stochastic positivity to show some bullish bias, even though the indicator lost its positive momentum, while the EMA 50 formed continuous negative pressure against the price.

As a result, we believe that the chances of resuming the bearish bias in the coming sessions are valid, noting that breaking 1780.25 will push the price towards 1,750 areas as the next main station while breaking 1819.00 will push the price to achieve additional gains that reach 1850.00 before such a serious attempt to decline. Today’s trading range is expected between 1780.00 support and 1825.00 resistance.

Today’s expected trend is bearish.