The EUR/USD traded sharply bearish, having plunged to its lowest level since December 2002 at 1.0226. Despite a positive shift in risk sentiment midweek, the shared currency struggles to stage a meaningful rebound. The pair’s next significant support level is 1.0200, and a drop below that level could trigger another leg lower.

In addition to Russia reducing gas supplies, Norway, Europe’s second-largest gas supplier, has warned that gas exports could fall by up to 60% due to ongoing strikes at the state-owned energy company Equinor. Investors are increasingly concerned that the European economy will enter a recession due to the energy crisis. Furthermore, several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers stated that a 25 basis point rate hike in July would be appropriate, making the euro less appealing to investors.

Meanwhile, Eurostat’s latest data show that Retail Sales increased by 0.2 percent in May, falling short of the market’s expectation of a 0.4 percent increase.

The ISM Services PMI data from the United States will be scrutinized in the afternoon for new impetus. The ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated a statistically substantial loss of growth momentum in the manufacturing sector’s business activity on Friday. This report weighed on the sentiment, allowing the dollar to strengthen ahead of the weekend. As a result, a similar market reaction may be observed if the survey indicates worsening business conditions in the services sector.

The US Federal Reserve will discharge the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting in the late American session. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing an 88 percent chance of a 75 basis point Fed rate hike in July. If the Fed’s announcement reduces that possibility, EUR/USD could stage a rebound on revived dollar weakness.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair resumes its negative trades, surpassing 1.02 and settling below it. It is reinforcing expectations of a continuation of the bearish trend for the rest of the day.

Our following main target is located at 1.0100, and holding below 1.0355 represents a key condition to continue the suggested decline. Today’s trading range is anticipated to be between 1.0170 support and 1.0220 resistance.

Today’s predicted trend: Bearish