Forex Signals Brief for August 19: No Hawkish Hints from the FED

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Yesterday the FED meeting minutes were the main event and markets were expecting to see some hawkish comments. That would mean a slower pace of rate hikes which would be a bearish thing for the USD. But, the Fed minutes weren’t overtly dovish even though many traders were looking for the FED to pour in some hawkish warnings and there weren’t any so that was seen as dovish, sending risk assets lower and the USD higher.

Retail sales reinforced the idea that the US consumer is in decent shape at least. Earlier in the day, the Reserve bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 50 bps, bringing them to 3.00%, but the NZD ended up lower after a short-lived spike. Inflation in the UK reached another record level, as CPI (consumer price index) increased to 10.1%, while Eurozone Q2 GDP was revised a point lower to 0.6%.

Today started with the employment rate from Australia early this morning and the trade balance from Switerland. The final CPI (consumer price index) from the Eurozone remained unchanged at 8.9%. Later in the US session, we have a number of economic data from the US, starting with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, unemployment claims, and the existing home sales, which will shed further light on the US economy.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday continued to trade crude Oil and cryptocurrencies as the volatility in these financial assets continued, while also having forex signals as well. Most of the signals were successful yesterday, apart from the Gold signal, which closed in loss even though we guessed the right direction.

GOLD – Sell Signal

We have been buying and selling Gold as the price moves around, although yesterday we decided to open a sell Gold signal, as the trend turned bearish this week and the 20 SMA (gray) was providing resistance on the H1 chart. The bearish trend continued for Gold, but before that, there was a jump that triggered our SL level.

Gold XAU – 60 minute chart

Remaining Short on WTI Oil

We have been seeing jumps in crude Oil, but the main trend remains bearish, so we have been selling Oil during retraces. Yesterday we saw a jump after the big drawdown in US crude Oil inventories, but we decided to sell that jump and the Oil signal closed in profit.

WTI Oil – H1 chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies remained bullish last week as they continued to make higher highs. Ethereum climbed above $2,000 while Bitcoin increased above $25,000. In recent days we have seen a small retreat, but it seems weak and we’re getting ready to buy cryptocurrencies again,

Buying BITCOIN at the 50 SMA

Bitcoin turned bullish again last week, resuming the uptrend after the retreat in the previous week and the support provided by the 20 SMA (gray). We opened a buy BTC signal which closed in profit as the price moved above $25,000, although the 100 SMA (green) has been acting as resistance on the daily chart. We decided to open another buy trade after the retreat yesterday at the 50 SMA (yellow) on the H4 chart, which was working as support.

BTC/USD – H4 chart

Buying the Retrace in ETHEREUM

Ethereum remains one of the most bullish cryptocurrencies, despite the occasional pullback lower. Ethereum buyers pushed the price above $2,000 last week, although we have been seeing a pullback over the weekend. We are following the price action to see where we can buy this digital coin, either at the 50 SMA (yellow) or the 100 SMA (green).

ETH/USD – 240 minute chart