AUD/USD has been bearish this week, after the retrace higher we saw last week. It reversed down as the USD started to regain some of its strength and now the trend on the H1 chart is bearish. Moving averages are acting as resistance at the top and we deiced to open a sell forex signal at the 50 SMA (yellow) which has been the ultimate resistance lately.

We saw a retrace higher again today, but it ended right at this moving average once again and now the price is reversing back down. The Philadelphia FED manufacturing index report was released just a while ago, and it showed an unexpected improvement, after the decline in the US Empire State manufacturing index.

Philadelphia Fed business index for August 2022

• Philadelphia Fed business index 6.2 vs -5.0 estimate
• Philadelphia Fed business index for August x.x vs -5.0 estimate. Last month -12.3
• Six-month business conditions -10.6 vs. -18.6 last month
• Employment index 24.1 vs. 19.4 last month
• Prices paid index 43.6 vs 52.2 last month. Lowest since 2020
• Prices received 23.3 vs 30.3 last month
• New orders index -5.10 vs -24.8 last month
• Shipments 24.8 vs. 14.8 last month
• Unfilled orders -1.8 vs. -10.4 last month
• Delivery times 2.7 vs. -10.2 last month
• Average employee workweek 6.1 vs. 6.4 last month
• Six-month capital expenditures 18.0 vs. 4.4 last month

So is the Empire index wrong or the Philly Fed index?

AUD/USD Live Chart