Has the USD Run to Far, or Does It Have Room for More Gains?
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read
The USD has been bullish since the beginning of the year. There have been bearish periods during this time, but the overall trend remains quite bullish as the USD index DXY shows. Moving averages have been providing support during the pullbacks lower and recently the 20 SMA (gray) came into play, which is a bullish signal.
USD Index DXY Daily Chart – Trading Above 110 Points
Moving averages acting as support for DXY during pullbacks
Even as the American economy shows signs of cooling, the greenback has soared against major currencies from Europe’s 19-member euro to the Chinese renminbi. An index of the dollar versus other major currencies is trading around a two-decade high.
Investment tends to flow into higher-yielding currencies, and the greenback has rallied in part because the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates more aggressively than some other central banks as it seeks to contain inflation, according to Kamakshya Trivedi, head of Global Foreign Exchange, Interest Rates and Emerging Markets Strategy Research. The dollar, which is seen as a haven during turmoil, has also risen as concerns grow that the shock in energy prices will stall economic growth in many parts of the world.
But Trivedi says there are signs that the dollar’s rise is in its “later innings,” as it nears extreme levels against currencies like the Japanese yen or the British pound, which has traded at its weakest level against the greenback since Margaret Thatcher was the U.K. prime minister. We spoke with Trivedi about the risks to emerging-market currencies from the dollar’s rally and his outlook for the world’s reserve currency.