Gold has been quite bearish since June and in the last few weeks the decline has been picking up pace as the USD has been making some massive gains. That lasted until yesterday morning and since then Gold has been retracing higher, with the USD on a pullback.

Gold 1-Minute Chart – MAs Providing Support

Closing the trade before the reversal down

We see that moving averages have been doing a good job in providing support and holding Gold during pullbacks lower. Today we opened two Gold signals after pullbacks to the 200 SMA (purple) on the 1-minute chart, both targeting the upside. Both GOLD signals closed in profit before the US unemployment claims and the Q2 revised GDP report, which are listed below.

US Initial Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims 193K versus 215K estimate. Prior week revised to 209K from 213K
• 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 207K versus 215.7 5K (revised).
• Continuing claims 1.347M versus 1.388M estimate.
• 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.381M versus 1.404M last week
• The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 17 were in Michigan (+6,102), Georgia (+1,837), New York (+1,709), New Jersey (+1,164), and California (+1,130),
• The largest decreases were in Indiana (-1,103), Arkansas (-386), Kentucky (-295), Virginia (-288), and Oklahoma (-264).

Next week the US jobs report released. Last week was the survey week for initial jobless claims and it came in at 209K. The prior month’s survey week was near 243K. Today’s data continues to point toward a strong employment situation in the US. The last time the claims that it was below the 200 level was back at the end of April/early May.

US Q2 GDP Last Revisions

• The second reading on Q2 was -0.6% vs -0.8% expected
• Q1 was -1.4% annualized
• Personal consumption +2.0% vs +1.5% second reading
• GDP final sales +1.3% vs +1.3% second reading
• Corporate profits after tax +6.2% vs -+9.1% second reading
• Consumer spending on durables -2.8% vs -0.1% second reading
• Exports +13.8% vs +17.6% second reading
• Imports +2.2% vs +2.8% second reading
• Inventories cut 1.91 percentage points from GDP

The headline here is unchanged but there are some surprisingly big revisions here.

Inflation metrics:

• Core PCE prices final +5.6% vs +4.4% expected
• GDP deflator +9.1% vs +8.9% expected
• PCE prices +7.5% vs +7.1% prior

These inflation numbers were revised surprisingly higher, particularly on the core side.

Gold XAU Live Chart