Forex Signals Brief for October 5: Will the USD Dive on ISM Services Too?
Skerdian Meta • 3 min read
Yesterday’s Market Wrap
The USD has seen one of the strongest rallies since the beginning of this year, which gained exceptional pace in recent months, but the bullish trend might have come to an end, after seeing the reaction to the JOLTS jobs report. Last week there was a series of positive data from the USD, but the Buck didn’t benefit from it, and declined instead. This week the USD continues to remain bearish, with the USD index DXY breaking below the 20 daily SMA yesterday, as the economic data starts to weaken.
The ISM manufacturing report released on Monday showed that the activity in this sector is heading toward stagnation, while yesterday the JOLTS job openings posted the biggest month-on-month decline, as the FED keeps raising interest rates pretty fast. This means that the FED will likely slow down if the data keeps softening, so the USD resumed the decline again. The AUD didn’t benefit much from that, despite the rate hike from the RBA, although it was a 25 bps hike instead of the 50 bps hike expected. So, the RBA is already slowing down and they might pause soon.
Today’s Market Expectations
This morning the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered the eighth rate hike in a row, although according to last month’s comments from Governor Orr, the RBNZ should slow down and pause rate hikes soon, just like the RBA did yesterday. This will mean further weakness for the NZD, although NZD/USD will also depend on the FED as well.
European and UK final services numbers for September were released as well, showing that this sector remains in contraction. Later we will have the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for September. Given the reaction in the USD from the negative readings this week, it should fall further if the services report comes in soft as well, although at 56.9 points it remains solid.
Forex Signals Update
Yesterday the volatility was low again, despite another tumble lower in the USD USD after the record decline in the US JOLTS jobs report. The number of trading signals was on the low side, 3 in total, two of which closed in profit while the other one hit the SL target during the USD decline.
Remaining Long on [[USD/JPY]
USD/JPY used to be bullish and the uptrend picked enormous speed in recent months, although after the intervention from the BOJ the price has stabilized, trading in a range. The 50 SMA (yellow) has been acting as support on the H4 chart and we have bought USD/JPY against this moving average, although yesterday the 50 SMA was broken and our trade here was lost.
USD/JPY – H4 chart
Turning Bullish in GOLD
Gold turned really bearish until Monday last week, as the USD kept surging higher, but the trend has turned bullish now and has gained more than $110 from the bottom. We have turned hawkish on Gold as well, buying the dips, and yesterday we opened two buy Gold signals during the pullbacks at moving averages, which have been acting as support.
XAU/USD – 15 minute chart
Cryptocurrencies have been trading sideways without clear direction in the last two weeks, but this week the sentiment has turned positive. Main crypto coins made some decent gains yesterday although they still remained within the range, so until they break above or below, we will try to trade the range, sell at the top and buy at the bottom.
BITCOIN Pushing Above $20,000
Bitcoin continues to trade in a range for two weeks with moving averages acting as resistance at the top. A support zone has formed around $18,500 and BTC has made some considerable gains in the last two days, pushing above $20,000. Although buyers still face moving averages above and the stochastic indicator is overbought, so we’re looking to sell BTC around here.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
ETHEREUM Remains Weak
Ethereum resumed the decline last month after the Merge launch, which should have helped turn the price higher instead. ETH/USD has fallen below moving averages and the 20 SMA (gray) is acting as resistance now, so buyers remain weak, although we’ll see if they can push the price above this moving average.
ETH/USD – Daily chart