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Forex Signals Brief for October 6: USD Reverses After ISM Services Remain Strong

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

The USD turned lower since Monday last week after being on a very strong rally since March this year, and the decline was quite strong, sending EUR/USD nearly 5 cents higher to parity. The negative economic data earlier this week such as ISM manufacturing and JOLTS jobs raised suspicions about the future path of FED rate hikes, although the retreat started early last week, despite the positive data until Friday.

Yesterday though, the ISM non-manufacturing showed that the service sector remains in a decent position in the US, despite rising inflation. This improved the sentiment further for the USD and the upside momentum escalated, with the ADP Non-Farm payrolls for September increasing, while August’s numbers were revised much higher as well. The RBNZ delivered another 50 bps rate hike, but the 80 pip jump in the NZD/USD faded pretty quickly.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today we will see how the sentiment surrounding the US dollar will be. If it remains positive, then the uptrend has resumed again for the USD. The economic data is light today, with the unemployment claims on schedule to be released late in the US session, before speeches from several low-key FOMC speakers. Retail sales are expected to decline in Europe in a while, as inflation hit 10% in September, although we’ll see.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility increased again as USD buyers returned and we opened six trading signals. All our signals closed in profit apart from one in USD/JPY. Today we’re looking to trade this pair again as it continues to bounce in a range.

Turning Bearish Again in GOLD 

Gold used to be bearish until Monday last week, but the USD reversed lower and the trend changed in Gold. We turned hawkish on Gold as well, buying the dips, but yesterday we saw a pullback lower to the 50 SMA (yellow) which held as support. Although we opened two sell Gold signals, one of which long term and both closed in profit.

XAU/USD – 60 minute chart

Selling USD/JPY 

USD/JPY used to be bullish and the uptrend picked enormous speed in recent months, although after the intervention from the BOJ the price has stabilized, trading in a range. Yesterday we decided to open two sell signals in USD/JPY, one of which closed in profit, and the other in loss.

USD/JPY – H4 chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies have turned slightly bullish this week, after being bearish last week, abt BTC has climbed above $20,000. We saw a retreat yesterday in the US session, but that was bought up pretty quickly, showing that there’s some buying pressure right now, although the following bullish move wasn’t too strong.

XRP/USD Remaining Supported at MAs

Ripple surged above $0.50 last week, as the law case against the SEC saw some developments. The price has retreated lower a couple of times, but buyers are still prevailing. Earlier this week we saw a second retrace but the 100 SMA (green) held as support and now the bullish momentum is back on.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

ETHEREUM Remains Weak

Ethereum resumed the decline last month after the Merge launch, which should have helped turn the price higher instead. ETH/USD has fallen below moving averages and the 20 SMA (gray) is acting as resistance now, so buyers remain weak, although we’ll see if they can push the price above this moving average.

ETH/USD – Daily chart

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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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