Forex Signals Brief for October 17: USD Back on Its Feet After CPI Inflation
Last week we saw a dive in the USD and a surge in risk assets after the US CPI report, but markets have reversed now and the USD remains bul
Last Week’s Market Wrap
Last week was quiet during the first few days, with traders awaiting the US producer inflation PPI (producer price index) and the consumer inflation CPI (consumer price index). Both beat expectations which sent the USD higher initially. But then we saw a sudden reversal, with risk assets surging higher and the USD declining, despite the CPI report cementing a 75 bps rate hike by the FED on November 2.
Analysts had anticipated a 5% decline in stock markets on a decent reading, but they surged 5% higher instead, which was confusing. Nonetheless. the surge in risk assets ended on Friday and the USD started resuming the uptrend again, while stock markets turned bearish.
This Week’s Market Expectations
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) National Congress kicked off yesterday. Any hints about China’s future direction will be followed closely on a global scale, at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions. Later on New Zealand, UK and Canadian CPI inflation reports will be released, as well as the Chinese GDP for Q3. Although, the earnings from major companies will set the tone for the market this week, since the results will have an impact on the FED’s decision for the future of the monetary policy after November’s hike.
Forex Signals Update
Last week we opened 21 trading signals in total, most of which in forex, although we also had some nice results from Gold signals and crude Oil signals. We ended up with 16 winning forex signals and five losing ones, giving up a 76/24% win/loss ratio.
Going with the Flow in GOLD
Gold was bearish during the first few days of the week and we decided to remain short on Gold, opening a few sell signals which closed in profit. On Thursday we saw a retrace higher after the US CPI report, and we turned long on Gold, but on Friday the downtrend resumed again and we opened some more sell signals here, all of which closed in profit.
XAU/USD – 60 minute chart
Selling GBP/USD
GBP/USD continued to suffer early this week as UK gilt yields continue to increase, although it did end the week up. This was another profitable pair for us, despite being countertrend, since most of our forex signals here were sell signals. We did make use of moving averages as they held as resistance on the H4 chart.
GBP/USD – H4 chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Cryptocurrencies were slipping lower at the beginning of the week, and then we daw a quick dive after the US CPI inflation report. But, a quick reversal followed and cryptocurrencies surged higher as well, although the bullish momentum ended and they have been retreating lower slowly.
Buying BITCOIN As Support
Bitcoin was trading at around $19,000 before the US CPI report, but then crashed quickly to $18,200, which is a strong support zone, since it has been holding for more than a month. We decided to open a buy signal down there and now we are well in profit after the jump higher.
BTC/USD – H4 chart
XRP/USD Bouncing Higher
Ripple continues to remain bullish since last month, surging above $0.50, as the lawsuit against the SEC saw some developments. The price has retreated, so the bullish momentum slowed, but the 200 SMA (purple) held as support on the H4 chart and we saw a bounce off that moving average yesterday, which means that buyers are still active.
XRP/USD – H4 chart
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