Forex Signals Brief for October 26: BOC’s Time to Raise Rates by 75 bps Today
Today the Bank of Canada opens the central bank rate hike bonanza, which will be followed by the ECB tomorrow and the FED next week
Yesterday’s Market Wrap
Yesterday the economic calendar was light, so markets remained on a wait-and-see mode, although we saw a decent move in the US session. The German Ifo business climate indicator ticked lower in the European session, while in the US session the Richmond manufacturing index fell to -10 points, showing a contraction in activity during this month, while the CB consumer confidence weakened by more than 5 points, showing that the US consumer is suffering as prices keep surging.
That sent risk assets higher as the USD lost more than 100 pips, so we’re again in a scenario where bad news is good news for the markets. USD/JPY lost more than 250 pips during that move and after the Bank of Japan said that they will conduct smaller and more frequent interventions, we think that this might be the case for the flash crash in USD/JPY and the USD in general.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today started with the CPI (consumer price index) inflation from Australia, which showed a slight cool-off in Q3, as Oil prices continued to fall. The ANZ Business Confidence fell further into negative territory. Later on, the Bank of Canada will hold its meeting, where they are expected to raise interest rates again by 75 bps (basis points), which comes after a 100 bps and a 75 bps hike. Although the press conference will be more important to follow, as we will get some hints whether they will continue with rate hikes or slow down.
Forex Signals Update
Yesterday we started it pretty well, with two winning forex signals in USD/CAD and EUR/GBP during the European session, despite being quiet. Although we got caught on the wrong side with two more signals during that sudden USD crash. Although we came back and ended the day with another winning signal after the markets calmed.
Are MAs Turning Into Support for GOLD?Â
Gold has been showing bullish signals recently, although it continues bearish since early this month, falling below moving averages on the H1 chart which turned into resistance, especially the 100 SMA (green). We have been mostly bearish but last week we saw a jump in USD weakness and that’s what happened yesterday as well, as the price bounced off the 100 SMA which has turned into support.
XAU/USD – 60 minute chart
Selling EUR/GBPÂ Â
EUR/GBP surged higher last month as UK gilt yields surged higher, sending the GBP crashing lower. But, the price reversed as the BOE intervened and now this pair has fallen below the 200 SMA (purple) which acted as support for some time, while now it has turned into resistance.
EUR/GBP – 240 minute chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Cryptocurrencies have been bullish in recent days, attempting to jump higher and yesterday they managed to pop up, with Ethereum peaking above $1,500 in the evening. We highlighted on our crypto signals report yesterday that there could be a bullish breakout in the crypto market and the jump higher came later, but they need to push higher in order to be considered bullish.
Booking Profit on BITCOIN
Bitcoin has been trading in a range that stretched from $18,000 lows up to around $20,500 roughly speaking with the highs getting lower and the price not moving too far above the 200 SMA (purple) on the H4 chart. But, in the last few days, we have seen bullish signals and yesterday the price jumped above $20,000, hitting our take profit target.
BTC/USD – H4 chart
 ETHEREUM Piercing $1,500
Ethereum was trading in a range for a month too, although last week we saw sellers take a stand and give this crypto a push lower. But, the decline stopped at $1,160 and buyers returned again. They pushed above the 200 SMA (purple) and yesterday we saw a really strong move, as ETH/USD popped around 17% higher, piercing above $1,500.
ETH/USD – H4 chart
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