Crude Oil was declining from March until late last month, as the USD kept gaining momentum with the FED raising interest rates in a frenzy, while the risk sentiment turned negative as the global economy headed into a recession. As a result, US WTI Oil fell below $76 at the end of September. But, since then we have seen some bullish signals, with buyers becoming more active.

US crude Oil increased above $9 early this month as the USD turned bearish, but it turned lower again. This week buyers have come back and Oil has been making higher highs. Today we saw a $2 jump off the 50 SMA (yellow) on the H1 chart below, pushing the price above $90 as US EIA inventories took a plunge.

WTI Oil H1 Chart – MAs Turning Into Support

 Crude Oil pushes above $90    

OPEC October output fell 20,000 barrels per day to 29.71 million barrels per day, according to Reuters’ secondary sources survey. For October, OPEC+ pledged to cut 100k bpd with 64,000 barrels slated to come from OPEC. They didn’t cut that much but that’s because many countries were far below target and fighting to restore lost barrels. Along those lines, Iraq added 50,000 barrels in the month but is still producing 100,000 bpd below target.

Weekly US EIA Petroleum Inventory Data

• Prior was +2588K
• Gasoline -1257K vs -1358K expected
• Distillates +427K vs -560K
• Refinery utilization +1.7% vs +0.5% expected
• Cushing +1267K
• Production 11.9 mbpd vs 12.0 mbpd prior
• SPR draw of 1.9m
• Implied demand at 20.481 mbpd, down 106K w/w
• Gasoline demand -270K bpd
• Implied mogas demand: 8.66Mbpd

API data released late yesterday:

• Crude -6.530MM (+267k exp)
• Gasoline -2.640MM
• Distillates +865K
• Cushing +883K

WTI crude oil is up 20 cents on the day and largely unchanged since the data.

WTI Crude Oil Live Chart