Can NZD/USD Push Above the 200 Daily SMA As Retail Sales Turn Positive?

NZD/USD made a strong bullish reversal by the middle of October, at 0.55 lows, and has been making solid gains since then, getting pretty close to 0.63 yesterday. The USD has been retreating as the sentiment has been improving, while commodity currencies have been benefiting from the improved market sentiment.

So, this pair has gained nearly six cents and despite the comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Carr for a slowdown in rate hikes a few months ago, the RBNZ continues to raise them. In fact, they picked up the pace, as they delivered a 75 basis points hike in the last meeting, which gave the NZD another push higher.

NZD/USD Daily Chart – The 200 SMA Stopping the Surge for Now

Stochastic is well overbought, which points to a bearish retreat soon

The retail sales report which was released early last night showed a reversal in Q3, after two declines in Q1 and Q2. Yesterday retail sales showed a 0.4% increase in Q3 for both headline and core sales. That was below expectations, but it’s still good news.

New Zealand Q3 Retail Sales Report

• Q3 retail sales +0.4% QoQ vs 0.5% expected
• Q2 retail sales were -2.3%
• Core retail sales in Q3 0.4% against 0.7% expected
• Core retail sales in Q2 were -1.5%
• Retail sales YoY +3.9% up from -3.7% previously

Comment via Stats NZ:

“With border restrictions lifting this year, a return of international visitors is likely to have helped boost hospitality spending, in addition to the bounceback seen in retail sales following last September quarter’s lockdown”

NZD/USD Live Chart