USD turned lower last week as inflation headed toward normal levels

Forex Signals Brief for December 21: Consumer Confidence and Canadian Inflation

Posted Wednesday, December 21, 2022 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Yesterday started with a surprise by the Bank of Japan early in the Asian session, which left rates unchanged as expected but the BOJ announced a tweak to its yield curve control policy which went against market expectations, catching it off guard. The JPY and bond yields surged higher, with USD/JPY losing around 7 cents. The USD took a hit after the decision by the BOJ but the price action in most forex pairs apart from the JPY ones remained choppy as the uncertainty of whether central banks will slow or continue tightening continues.

The US data didn’t help matters as it also came mixed, with the Philadelphia services indicator falling further into negative territory. New housing starts posted a slight increase but building permits declined. Retail sales in Canada turned positive and showed a nice increase for October after falling in September, although as interest rates increase the Canadian consumer numbers will turn negative again.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today started with credit card spending in New Zealand, followed by the German GfK consumer climate which remains deeply negative. Later on, we have the US CB consumer confidence being released and the existing home sales, as well as the consumer inflation report CPI (consumer price index) from Canada which is expected to fall flat in November.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility wasn’t as high apart from the JPY pairs which crashed lower, but markets kept changing direction in a choppy trade environment, so it wasn’t easy./ We opened many trading signals across most markets, closing the day with 5 winning forex signals and three losing ones.

 USD/CAD Remains Bullish Ahead of Inflation Report

USD/CAD has been bullish since the middle of November, at a time when the USD turned quite bearish, indicating increased weakness in the Canadian Dollar as the USD kept gaining against it. The highs have been getting higher and moving averages have been acting as support during retreats, particularly the 100 SMA (green) on the H4 chart. So, the trend remains bullish and we will try to open a long term buy signal close to the 100 SMA if inflation numbers come up soft.

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USD/CAD – 240 minute chart

Booking Profit in GOLD  

Gold turned bullish in November and it pushed above $1,800 a coupe of times, but couldn’t hold on to gains above there and retreated lower. Although the 100 SMA (green0 held as support on the H4 chart and Gold bounced off that moving average again, pushing above $,820. We had a long term buy single which hit the take profit target after the jump yesterday.

XAU/USD – 240 minute chart 

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies turned bearish last week after the risk sentiment turned negative in financial markets, following the rate hikes from four major central banks and earlier this week they continued lower. But we saw a quick reversal on Tuesday evening and yesterday they continued to push higher.

BITCOIN Moving Above MAs After the Dip

Bitcoin reversed lower after surging to $18,300 early last week after the soft US consumer inflation report. The decline continued until Tuesday evening when we saw another dip lower to $16,300s, but buyers came back and the price reversed higher, sending it above $17,000 for some time.

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BTC/USD – 240 minute chart

ETHEREUM Above $1,200 Again

Ethereum was bullish with the 100 SMA (green) turning from resistance into support on the H4 chart, but last week we saw a bearish reversal here as well, which sent the price from $1,350 to $1,150. The 20 SMA 9gray) turned into resistance on this timeframe, but the price jumped higher and now ETH/USD is trading above $1,200.

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ETH/USD – H4 chart     
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