Australia April retail sales

Forex Signals Brief for January 20: Retail Sales to Close the Week

Posted Friday, January 20, 2023 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

On Wednesday we saw a decline in retail sales with the numbers being below expectations as well. The USD fell immediately after the report, while risk assets jumped higher, with the idea that the FED would definitely slow down with rate hikes as the economy heads into a contraction. But markets reversed after the realization that the decline was mostly due to cold weather around Boxing day, so the USD reversed higher and risk assets turned lower.

Yesterday we saw a continuation of that price action during the Asian and European sessions, as the USD continued to make some gains with the US unemployment claims falling while the Philly FED manufacturing index improved, but then it reversed in the US session and ended up almost unchanged. So, the price action was slow yesterday, with a bearish bias for stock markets.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today the National Core CPI from Japan showed an increase this month. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany showed a slight improvement, but it remains deeply negative. UK Retail Sales made a positive reversal in December after the decline in November, while Canadian retail sales are expected to turn negative in November. The ECB president Christine Lagarde is speaking later on, while the US home sales will close the week.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday there was some volatility although it wasn’t too high, which was good to trade. We opened several trading signals in forex and commodities, with four of them closing in profit after reaching the targets. We’re still short on Oil though as the global economy slows.

Booking Profit on 2 GOLD Signals

Gold has been bullish since October, but it retreated lower earlier this week after printing a high of just below $1,930. But the 50 SMA (yellow) held as support on the H4 chart and Gold started bouncing off that moving average, resuming the bullish momentum.

XAU/USD – 240 minute chart 

WTI Bounces Off the 50 SMA

Crude Oil has also been bearish since March last year, but it has formed a bottom above $70. This year buyers have been in control though, but the main trend still remains bearish. The reversal on Wednesday afternoon stopped at the 50 SMA (yellow) on the h4 chart and the price bounced off that moving average.

USD/CHF – H4 chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies were displaying buying pressure since the beginning of this year. Although after last week’s surge, the trend slowed and buyers were showing exhaustion as we mentioned on Tuesday. Yesterday we saw a bearish reversal after the initial USD fall on softer retail sales.

Will MAs Turn into Resistance for BITCOIN?

Bitcoin has made a bearish reversal this week, after the strong bullish momentum in cryptocurrencies early this year as the price surged above $21,500. Although the 100 SMA (green) has been broken and is acting as resistance now, which is a bearish signal, so we are short on Bitcoin already but not for too long.

BTC/USD – H4 chart

Is the 50 SMA Holding for ETHEREUM?

Ethereum was showing some decent buying pressure in the last two weeks, which sent the price above $1,600. Moving averages were doing a great job acting as support on the H1 chart, but yesterday they were broken as the price made a bearish reversal. So, we’re watching where this decline will stop so we can go long again on Ethereum.

ETH/USD – H4 chart
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