Central banks doing another round of rate hikes

Forex Signals Brief for March 20: More Rate Hikes Coming This Week

Posted Monday, March 20, 2023 by
Skerdian Meta • 3 min read

Last Week’s Market Wrap

Last week was another crazy week, as the banking sector vows continued, with more major banks having financial issues, which hurt risk sentiment considerably and sent the USD and safe haven assets surging higher. Gold is approaching the $2,000 level mark, as the bank failure started to spread in Europe, increasing risks for another global financial crisis like the one we saw in 2008-09.

Risk assets got battered once again, with stock markets and US treasury rates moved sharply lower as banking concerns along with hopes for a more dovish FED next week, sent funds flowing into US treasuries. Silicon Valley Bank filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. UBS is also close to acquiring Credit Suisse, as part of an effort to stabilize the banking sector, while Moody’s downgraded the First Republic Bank to B2 from Baa1. Although the decline in risk assets stalled toward the end of the week, as we head into the new week.

This Week’s Market Expectations

This week is expected to be quite interesting as well, with high volatility, as a number of factors are into play. There is intervention to stop the contagion of bank failure  but the risk is still high and the number of banking institutions requiring help is increasing. But on to of this, this week we have several major central banks expected to raise interest rates. The SNB is expected to raise rates by 50 bps to 1.50% on Thursday while the BOE by 25 bps to 4.25%, although the market will be focused on the FED statement and Powell’s press conference, after the 25 bps hike to 5.00% on Wednesday evening. Although it still seems like a long time until then.

Forex Signals Update

Last week was wild as we saw some huge moves across all markets, so we shifted to longer term trades, trying to avoid the whipsaws. We opened 38 forex signals in total, with only eight losing signals and 30 winning trading signals, giving us a 79/21% win/loss ratio.

GOLD Holding Gains Above the 50 SMA 

Gold retreated lower in February as the USD resumed the bullish momentum, but is showing strength this month, as it heads toward the $2,000 level. We continue to remain long on Gold since the bounce the week before and opened 12 trades here, ending up with 10 winning Gold signals.

XAU/USD – 240 minute chart 

MAs Keeping WTI Bearish

Crude Oil had the works week since late 2021. US WTI crude formed a support zone above the $70 level, while  the 100 SMA (green) was acting as resistance on  the daily chart. The highs were getting lower though, which indicated that sellers still had the upper hand. The support zone was broken and us Oil closed the week around $66.30.

US Oil – Daily chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies are benefiting from all the uncertainties with the traditional banking sector. They started surging higher and continue to pushed to new highs for the year, as Bitcoin heads for $30,000. Buyers seem to be in total control and every dip is finding strong bids.

BITCOIN Supported by the 20 SMA

Bitcoin retreated lower early this month but has resumed the bullish momentum again after finding support at the 200 SMA (purple), where it bounced from. Buyers keep pushing the price of BTC/USD higher, breaking all round levels and now we are heading toward $30,000 which will be the last confirmation for buyers if they can push above it.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

ETHEREUM Breaking Above $1,800

Ethereum pushed above moving averages in January which soon turned into support, particularly the 200 SMA (purple) on the daily timeframe chart. This moving average  has turned into support, holding ETH/USD twice during retreats lower. We saw the last bounce off this moving average earlier this month and now the price is heading for $2,000.

ETH/USD – Daily chart
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