Is the US consumer is back at the shops?

Forex Signals Brief for March 28: How Is the US Consumer Feeling?

Posted Tuesday, March 28, 2023 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Last week started on a positive note, as the banking crisis was being tackled by authorities, particularly in Europe, with the banking issues being resolved and central banks delivering dovish rate hikes, but ended with risk assets retreating, while the USD advanced toward the end of the week. Yesterday the positive momentum resumed, with a light calendar, indicating an improvement in the German Ifo Business Climate.

European and North American stock markets opened with a bullish gap higher, but couldn’t make much gains, similar to Kiwi and the Aussie, while the CAD made some decent gains, following crude Oil higher, which reached $73. Safe havens such as Gold and the JPY retreated as the sentiment remained positive.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today the calendar is light again, although there are more events than yesterday. It started with the retail sales from Australia and the Tokyo core CPI inflation, both of which showed a slowdown. The BOE Gov Bailey is speaking soon and he will likely send the GBP down on dovish comments. Later in the afternoon the ECB President Lagarde will speak while the US Conference Board consumer confidence will close the day, and will be the first data release the FED will be watching this week.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility was decent, enough to pull many trades across most financial markets. We opened 8 trades in total, with five reaching the targets. Four forex signals closed in profit while one closed in loss as the volatility increased in cryptocurrencies as well.

GOLD Finding Support at the 50 SMA

Gold continues to find it hard to keep the gains above $2,000. It resumed the bullish momentum last week and surged higher, piercing above $2,000 twice, but the price retreated lower. Yesterday XAU continued to slip lower as the sentiment improved. but the 50 SMA (yellow) stopped the decline on the H4 chart and we decided to open a buy Gold signal after closing two Gold signals in profit earlier in the day.

XAU/USD – 240 minute chart 

USD/CHF Continues to Slip Lower

USD/CBHF seems to have resumed the bearish trend which it was following during Q4 of last year, and moving averages are acting as resistance during retraces higher. We opened a sell USD/CHF signal at the 20 SMA last week, which closed in profit yesterday.

USD/CHF – 240 minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies were displaying buying pressure since the beginning of the year and they were pushing higher until the middle of this month, although they lost the bullish pressure and were slow to make new highs after that. Last week the highs were getting lower while yesterday we saw a dive as U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a lawsuit against Binance and its founder, Changpeng Zhao, but buyers returned quite fast.

BITCOIN Hanging Around $28,000

Bitcoin peaked above $28,000 but couldn’t stay above that level and yesterday we saw a sudden tumble to $26,600s. But buyers came back and they stopped declining. The bullish trend will resume soon though as the uncertainties in the traditional banking sector diverge cash flows toward cryptocurrencies.

BTC/USD – 240 minute chart

Buying ETHEREUM at Support

Ethereum experienced some bullish momentum as it pushed above moving averages, which later turned into support on the H4 chart. The 50 SMA (yellow) became support that prevented ETH/USD from dropping too low, but eventually it fell below the 100 SMA (green) yesterday, although the support zone around $1,700 held initially.

ETH/USD – H4 chart
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