USD Feeling Bullish Today on Worries That Inflation Will Remain High

The USD made further progress in the European session today, as UK inflation remained above 10%

Ethereum forming a bullish reversing pattern after the retreat

The USD turned bearish in October as inflation softened and has been on the back foot since then, apart from February. Retreating inflation eleminates the main reason for the FED to raise interest rates, which has been keeping the USD bearish. Although, recently we have seen some signs of the slowdown in core inflation slow down, which means that everyday prices apart from energy continue to increase at a fast pace.

Today we saw another strong inflation report, although from the UK not from the US, but it got the market thinking that prices will continue to remain high in the US as well. The US dollar moved higher today, while bond yields have risen too. The UK CPI (consumer price index) figures were higher than expected, causing concerns about inflation and making traders believe the FED will take a less dovish approach.

While traders still expect one rate hike in May, the previous prediction of three rate cuts by the end of the year has been reduced to two, and the implied interest rate for November and December has increased by over 10 basis points this week. EUR/USD slipped lower during the EUropean session below 1.0920. Although we saw a retrace higher in the US session which has stopped, so we decided to open a sell EUR/USD signal.

Gold also slipped lower, falling below $1,970 and we booked profit on ou Gols signal which we opened last night on the short side. Although we have seen a boune here too in the last few hours, so we are looking to sell Gold as well around $2,000 since the highs are geting lower.

Cryptocurrencies also retreated lower as the USD moved higher. Bitcoin slipped below $30,000 after the bounce yesterday and the BTC price approached $29,000. Ethereum also retreated lower, falling below $2,000 and we decided to open a buy Ethereum signal, as the decline has stalled just above the 100 daily SMA (green) on the chart

While traders still expect one rate hike in May, the previous prediction of three rate cuts by the end of the year has been reduced to two, and the implied interest rate for November and December has increased by over 10 basis points this week. EUR/USD slipped lower during the European session below 1.0920. Although we saw a retrace higher in the US session which has stopped, so we decided to open a sell EUR/USD signal.

Gold also slipped lower, falling below $1,970 and we booked profit on ou Gols signal which we opened last night on the short side. Although we have seen a boune here too in the last few hours, so we are looking to sell Gold as well around $2,000 since the highs are geting lower.

Cryptocurrencies also retreated lower as the USD moved higher. Bitcoin slipped below $30,000 after the bounce yesterday and the BTC price approached $29,000. Ethereum also retreated lower, falling below $2,000 and we decided to open a buy Ethereum signal, as the decline has stalled just abve the 100 daily SMA (green) on the chart above.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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