Forex Signals Brief May 18: Sentiment Depending on More US Data Today

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Yesterday the USD continued its slight bullish momentum, as it advanced against most assets. Risk sentiment improved after some positive events, such as higher Atlanta Fed GDPNow which increased to 2.9% from 2.6% previously. Biden sounded confident about the debt ceiling after constructive comments from the Republicans.

Crude Oil ended up $3 higher despite EIA weekly crude inventories which showed a +5,040K buildup against -920K expected on signs that OPEC+ members are following through on their pledged output cuts. The GBP also ended up higher after a surge on BOE’s Bailey comments who said that things are looking a bit brighter than they did a couple of months ago.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today started with the employment report from Australia, which showed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.5% while new employment slowed. The European session is expected to be slow, as Frane and Germany are off for Ascension Day. In the US session, the volatility should pick up on a number of data, such as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims, which will show where the US economy stands.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility picked up after two quiet days and the signals we had opened from early in the week closed. We also leaned on Gold heavily with several trading signals which closed in profit, so we had 8 signals in total, seven of which reached the take profit target.

GOLD Breaks the 200 SMA

Gold has shown bullish momentum since February, supported by different moving averages. Initially, the 50-day and 100-day SMA (green) provided support, followed by the 200-day SMA. However, the 200 daily SMA (purple) was broken yesterday as USD buyers returned.

XAU/USD – 240 minute chart

WTI Oil Pushing to the 100 SMA

Crude Oil has been bearish since the middle of April, with the global economy slowing down and heading toward a possible recession after numerous rate hikes by central banks all over the world. Yesterday’s EIA inventories showed a 5.04 million barrels increase although buyers didn’t mind the numbers and WTI crude pushed above the 100 SMA (green) which comes at $73.

US Oil – 240 minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

The Bounce Resuming Again in BITCOIN

Bitcoin has been bearish since reversing from above $31,000 in April and sellers pushed the price below the 50 SMA (yellow). Although the 100 SMA (green line) held as support. The bounce which started in the last few days stalled on Tuesday but yesterday buyers came back again and started to push the price higher again.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

The 100 SMA Keeping ETHEREUM Bullish

In recent weeks, the buying pressure for Ethereum has slowed down, and we have witnessed a retreat in its price over the last few days. However, the correction appears to be nearing completion as the BTC/USD 50 SMA (yellow) is holding as support. Additionally, the stochastic indicator is showing an oversold condition. Considering these factors, we decided to open a buy signal for ETH some time ago.