Forex Signals Brief May 29: Quiet Markets for Whit Monday Bank Holiday

Last Week’s Market Wrap

Last week the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continued the central bank interest rate hikes scenario, raising the cash rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, although the NZD and other risk currencies ended up lower by the end of the week. The USD was the biggest winner, as decent economic data from the US brought back the rate hike talk from the FED, which pushed the DXY index above 104 points.

Higher US core PCE price index, better GDP revisions for Q1, and higher retail sales lowered the odds of a recession in the US. The PMI manufacturing and services data from Europe and the US came in line with expectations, showing that manufacturing activity remains in contraction while services are expanding. Gold and crude Oil also ended the week down.

This Week’s Market Expectations

Today the price action is quiet as most of the markets are closed for Whit Monday. Tomorrow we have the Q1 GDP report from Switzerland, which is expected to show a return to growth, followed by the US CB Consumer Confidence. Australian CPI inflation will be released on Wednesday, followed by the Canadian GDP report, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, while the NFP report will be released on Friday.

Forex Signals Update

Last week the USD remained in charge once again despite the occasional pullback, with most risk currencies on the retreat. We remained mostly long on the USD, buying the pullbacks, which was a good strategy, so we ended up with 20 trading signals, 14 of which were winning forex signals and six losing ones.

GOLD Breaks the Support

Gold has reversed down since topping below the all-time high and has been making lower highs since then. The support zone around $1,950-55 held for some time but it was broken late last week and now it has turned into resistance. So, we remain short on Gold and are trying to sell retraces higher.

XAU/USD – 240 minute chart

The 20 SMA Keeps Pushing EUR/USD Down

EUR/USD has turned totally bearish in the last two weeks after being bullish for months since October, although buyers failed to push above 1.11 where the price reversed. The pace of the decline has been quite strong and steady, with the 20 AMA acting as resistance on the H4 chart, so we are selling retrace higher here as well.

EUR/USD – 240 minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

BITCOIN Testing the 50 SMA

The sentiment in the crypto market seems to have improved over the weekend, as we are seeing a bounce higher. The pice of BTC has moved above the 100 SMA (green) again and now buyers are testing the 50 SMA (yellow). If they manage to push BTC above this level, then we might see new highs for this year soon.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

The 100 SMA Held for ETHEREUM

In recent weeks, the buying pressure for Ethereum has slowed down, and we have witnessed a retreat in its price over the last few days. However, the correction appears complete as the 100 SMA (green0 held as support for ETH/USD. Now buyers are testing the 50 SMA as well.